How Long Will My Portfolio Last in Retirement?

If you are asking how long your portfolio will last in retirement, you are already ahead of most retirees. The majority never run the math. They save for decades, pick a withdrawal number that feels reasonable, and hope for the best. But hoping is not a strategy, and the difference between a portfolio that lasts 15 years and one that lasts 30 comes down to a few decisions you make right now.

Most Retirees Are Using the Wrong Formula

The 4% rule says you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio each year in retirement. It was published in 1994 by financial advisor William Bengen, based on historical market data going back to 1926. Here is the problem: most people do not actually follow it.

They withdraw what they need, not what is safe. If your portfolio is $600,000 and your spending need after Social Security is $60,000 per year, you are withdrawing 10%, not 4%. At that rate, even with 6% average investment growth, your portfolio runs out in about 16 years. For someone retiring at 65, that means running out of money at 81.

That is not a worst-case scenario. That is the base case.

The Three Factors That Determine Portfolio Longevity

Your portfolio lifespan is not random. It is driven by three factors, and you have more control over them than you might think.

1. Your withdrawal rate. This is the single biggest factor. The gap between a 4% withdrawal and a 7% withdrawal can mean the difference between your money lasting 35 years or 15 years. Every percentage point matters.

2. Your investment growth rate. A 6% average return is a common assumption, but sequence of returns risk means the order of your returns matters as much as the average. A 20% crash in year one of retirement is far more damaging than the same crash in year fifteen.

3. Your additional assets. Most retirees only count their investment portfolio and Social Security. But if you own a home with significant equity, that asset can add years, even a decade, to your portfolio lifespan.

What the Numbers Actually Look Like

Here is a real example. A 68-year-old retiree with a $600,000 investment portfolio, a home worth $900,000, and a $60,000 annual spending need after Social Security.

Scenario 1: Portfolio Only. Withdrawing $60,000 per year with 6% average growth, the portfolio is depleted by year 16. At age 84, the money is gone.

Scenario 2: Portfolio Plus Home Equity Buffer. Adding a HECM line of credit that provides $30,000 per year for the first five years reduces the portfolio withdrawal to $30,000 during that window. The portfolio lasts until year 23. That is seven additional years of financial security.

Scenario 3: Portfolio Plus Home Equity and Bitcoin. Allocating 5% of the portfolio to Bitcoin with a 15% annual growth assumption, alongside the home equity buffer, extends the portfolio beyond 35 years. The Bitcoin allocation grows enough to supplement withdrawals in later years.

The difference between scenario 1 and scenario 3 is roughly two decades of retirement income. Same starting portfolio. Same spending need. The only variable is how many assets you bring to the table.

Why Nobody Runs This Math for You

Your financial advisor might show you a Monte Carlo simulation with a 85% success rate. But here is what they probably will not tell you: that simulation only includes your investment portfolio. It does not account for your home equity because most advisors are paid based on assets under management, and your home is not an asset they manage.

The AARP has noted that housing wealth is the largest untapped financial resource for most retired Americans. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development offers resources on home equity conversion mortgages for homeowners 62 and older. These are tools designed specifically to help retirees use housing wealth strategically, not as a last resort.

The question is not whether your home has value. The question is whether you are using it.

How to Run Your Own Numbers

You do not need a financial advisor to answer the question “how long will my portfolio last.” The Perpetual Retirement calculator lets you enter your age, home value, portfolio balance, and monthly spending, then shows you three scenarios side by side:

1. Portfolio only – your investments and Social Security, nothing else

2. Portfolio plus home equity – adding a HECM line of credit as a strategic buffer

3. Portfolio plus home equity and Bitcoin – modeling a small Bitcoin allocation alongside home equity

You will see exactly when your portfolio depletes in each scenario. The chart makes it obvious. It takes about two minutes and costs nothing.

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. HECM loans are available to homeowners 62 and older. Consult a qualified financial advisor and HUD-approved housing counselor before making decisions about your retirement strategy.

Tane Cabe, NMLS 78590, Barrett Financial Corp, NMLS 181106, 7201 Pioneer Way Suite B200, Gig Harbor WA 98335